Posted: March 24th, 2024

The Potential of Autonomous Ships for Specific Routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea – Benefits and Challenges

The Potential of Autonomous Ships for Specific Routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea – Benefits and Challenges
1. Introduction
The purpose of this research is to identify potential routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea and to examine the benefits and challenges of autonomous ships on these specific routes. This study investigates the potential for unmanned vessels in terms of the reductions in time and human resources, as well as the inherent challenges prevalent in this region. The development of autonomous ships could essentially bridge the efficiency gap between air and surface transportation. In terms of navigation, the vessels in the air and on the surface essentially use the same technology. However, due to the complexity of international air traffic control, aircraft are often able to take advantage of superior routing depending on the location of their destination. A definitive air traffic control system for shipping has yet to be established, and thus shipping routes are often less than optimal. This will be a key issue in the determination of specific routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea.
The shipping industry has been dependent on human labor for centuries. The traditional manned ships are vulnerable to various degrees of constraints and limitations when it comes to flexibility, efficiency, and viability. The industry has always sought improvements to shipping operations, and thus attention has been drawn towards the development of autonomous ships. In contrast to conventional ships, the concept of unmanned surface vehicles and autonomous underwater vehicles has been established for many years. This has gained wide acceptance in both military and commercial applications, particularly in the field of mine countermeasure. With rapid technological advancement, it is only a matter of time before full autonomous ships become a reality.
1.1 Background
International shipping is the lifeblood of the global economy, with more than 80% of trade by volume and 70% by value being carried in seaborne shipments. Shipping is the most energy efficient mode of transport, and because of its heavy reliance on crude oil as a fuel, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic and environmental efficiency of shipping are intrinsically tied to the low cost of maritime labor, which is in large part due to the experience of officers and crews from developing economies. This experience allows for ships to be operated at close to their technological and commercial capacity while avoiding accidents and delays that might increase costs. Any technologies or practices which seek to increase efficiency in shipping must weigh potential cost savings against any compromise to safety. Given the magnitude and impact of the shipping industry, any such technologies or practices must also be considered in a global context.
The topic of autonomous shipping has received increasing attention in recent years due to advances in sensor, computer, control, and communication technologies. Autonomous ships offer many potential advantages, including cost savings, increased safety due to decreased potential for human error, and reduced environmental impact. However, many complex and interconnected legal, economic, social, and technical issues must be addressed before the full spectrum of impacts can be understood.
1.2 Research Objectives
The preliminary objectives of the research were as follows:
– To identify potential shipping routes for autonomous ships within the Arabian and Red Sea and to determine viable ship types – in terms of size, speed and so on – for each of these routes.
– To ascertain the potential economic, safety and environmental benefits and drawbacks of autonomy on these routes and to identify key stakeholders which may be affected by the implementation of autonomous ships.
– To conduct interviews with various experts (from within and outside the shipping industry) and stakeholders in order to understand the likelihood of regulatory changes and implementation of autonomous ships within the region.
– To identify impediments to the implementation of autonomous ships and potential solutions, with a focus on legal and regulatory issues in the maritime sector.
This research is primarily aimed at assessing the future potential for increased use of surface ships on specific routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea in autonomous mode. “Autonomous ships” are defined here as sea vessels which operate without direct human intervention. This should not be confused with statements referring to automated systems onboard conventionally manned ships. The purpose of the research was to understand the potential benefits and drawbacks of autonomous ships in this context, and to identify the impediments and possible solutions to implementation, with a focus on legal and regulatory issues.
1.3 Scope of the Study
At the same time, a secondary focus will be set on future energy resources in shipping transportation in these areas. As of now, shipping sustainability has become a global concern due to increasing concerns about the environment. The topic of green shipping mainly revolves around future changes of energy resources and the efficiency and cost of said resources. This topic is extremely broad when applied to the global scale, thus we will focus upon the future of green shipping to and from the two regions mentioned, with special focus on ships transporting energy resources. Diesel fuel is still the predominant energy source for ships and is the same for ships making voyages to and from the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, it will not be long before ships will have to make the transition to the energy resources of the lands they are transporting the goods, being closer to sustainable resources. As mentioned before, changes in the energy market for the Middle East may significantly affect shipping transportation of energy resources to Asia and subsequent trading nations in the Middle East.
The geographical scope of this study will be primarily concerned with the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea. The reason for the selection of this area is because these two seas have significant strategic and economic importance to many nations, and thus, are one of the busiest waterways in the world. The Arab-Persian Gulf and Red Sea are the two main passages where ships travel to and from Europe, Africa, and Asia. This is because the distance between the northern and southern tips of the Red Sea is relatively short and Europe and Africa can be easily accessed through the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea provides passage to the Middle East and many Southeast Asian countries. It is estimated that more than 50,000 ships travel these passages annually. Many of these ships are oil tankers transporting oil from the Middle East to Europe, America, and Asia. This is of course due to the Middle East being the largest oil exporting region in the world. With the increase of globalization, it is expected that traffic in these waterways will only increase in the future. This growth in traffic would be highly dependent on the economy, global and local political situations, as well as the environment of the time. At the same time, with increasing concerns about oil being a finite resource and increasing environmental awareness, there may be shifts in energy sources to clean sustainable energy sources. This could significantly change the world energy market and thus shipping transportation of energy resources. All of these changing variables in the future make simulation analysis an excellent tool that ranges from short-term decision making to long-term prediction. Ranging from both the governmental level and oil companies, our research will help decision makers in the field with our data and conclusions.
2. Literature Review
2.2 Current Applications of Autonomous Ships
As of today, fully autonomous ships are not in operation due to limitations of technology and the significant amount of development and testing that is required to ensure that the technology is reliable and safe. However, there are many research projects currently underway within the field.
2.1 Definition of Autonomous Ships
The traditional definition of autonomy is acting independently or having the freedom to do so. Autonomous ships take this idea and apply it to vessels to perform tasks that are usually carried out by humans. The idea of automating ships is not a new concept as it can be traced back to the early 20th century with the invention of radio-controlled boats. Since then, the automation of ship functions has advanced significantly to what it is today. Modern autonomous ships use a combination of sensors including GPS, radar, and acoustic sensors with computer systems to interpret the information received and make decisions based on that information. This can include changing course to avoid collision with other vessels or obstacles, or even docking in a port. The end goal is to have a ship that is capable of operating without human interaction.
The literature review section of this report is focused on exploring the concept of autonomous ships and giving an overview of the past, current, and future of this technology. Since the concept of controlling a ship without directly being involved is in its early stages, information about the exact historical development of autonomous ships is limited. As a result, this literature review will encompass a broader range of topics related to autonomy in marine vessels, which will provide a comprehensive background for the concept of autonomous ships today and in the future.
2.1 Definition of Autonomous Ships
Without question, the most vital factor in writing this research paper is the definition of autonomous ships. This is a subject that could take years to develop a clear understanding of, not only because of its technological complexity, but because of its infancy as an idea. As of right now, there is no universally accepted definition of what exactly an autonomous ship is. There are many different names for what is perceived to be the same or a similar technology. Unmanned ship, robotic ship, drone ship, and cybernetic vessel are each their own interchangeable terms that have connotations that vary slightly – similar to the history and connotations of the term “robot” and “cyborg”. Basically, an autonomous ship is a ship that is capable of making decisions in varying situations to an extent and range of complexity, but with varying degrees of human supervision. For the sake of simplicity, this paper refers to an autonomous ship as any robotic vessel that is capable of steering itself in the navigation of water from point A to point B.
This idea by itself is simple enough to understand, but when taking into account the extreme complexity of the roles and decision-making processes of human sailors in the near infinite variety of situations at sea, the prospect of automating a ship’s navigation becomes quite daunting. In the 2013 forecast made by the EU Parliament, they give a broad definition of maritime autonomy as “the capacity of a ship to determine its own behavior and reactions, with or without human interaction”. This serves as a good broad definition that embodies the far-reaching technology, but to translate this effectively to real sailing vessels of the near future, it is necessary to separate the realizable tasks of a ship at sea from those that are not.
2.2 Current Applications of Autonomous Ships
As of late 2016, Kongsberg Maritime and YARA declared a pilot project to make the world’s first entirely electric and self-ruling compartment transport MV “YARA Birkeland” with zero outpourings of nursery gasses. Kongsberg will be in charge of improvement and conveyance of all the electrical, control and communication systems, while YARA will be in charge of advancement of the Birkeland and help with development where vital. The vessel will be completely autonomous by method for GPS position exchange control, coordinated to a current auto-sailing system, supervised at a conveyance center, furthermore propelled by Kongsberg. The new electric driven compartment transporter will have the capacity to accomplish higher power capability, expanded security, more noticeable reliability and lower working costs than any past self-sufficient ship type. YARA Birkeland will discharge this system and make the world’s initially absolutely self-governing conveyance system, inciting far reaching positive social and natural impact.
2.3 Advantages of Autonomous Ships
Global trends indicate that world trade is expected to keep growing. The World Trade Organisation had initially forecast a 5.3% per annum increase in world trade. This is significant should Mitsubishi Heavy Industries expect to see a doubling in demand for commercial and cargo ships within a 10-year period. Gigabit throughput is expected of the next generation satellite systems, therefore there is a necessary trend for an increased use of satellite for the remote control navigation of ships. An EU report into their observer project specified how satellite communications keeps man on board the ship as the significant overhead in terms of compared to satellite remote control which could significantly reduce operating costs. There are also several potential cost advantages of autonomous ships with the abolition of the need for standard navigation equipment as well as the reduced need for crew facilities which would free up ship space to increase carrying capacity. This, coupled with the reduced risk of collisions due to the enhanced decision making and computer reaction time, could lower insurance rates for autonomous ships.
2.4 Challenges and Limitations of Autonomous Ships
A number of challenges and limitations hinder the development of autonomous ships. The first and foremost issue is to ensure that the higher degrees of safety, reliability, and availability, which are the prerequisites for public acceptance, are achieved. An incident involving an autonomous ship could potentially cause more public outrage than one involving a conventional vessel. This is a particular concern for military applications, where a number of the technologies required for autonomous operation have been identified as key enabling technologies, yet unmanned vessels would be required to operate in a populated environment. This greater emphasis on safety has been seen in recent IMO decisions related to the goal-based standards approach to regulation. The new approach has been developed to be ship type-specific and is potentially more punitive to novel designs which may not fit in easily with the current prescriptive rules and regulations. Thus there is some reluctance in the industry to adopt radical design changes and technologies that move away from the current norms, as the procedure for assessing equivalencies with goal-based standards is still to be confirmed. Goal-based standards are intended to provide explicit safety levels for individual ship types and are based around the identification of a particular risk (e.g. ship capsize) and the goal of intent is set for the required level of safety to avoid that particular risk (e.g. no ship capsize). A prescriptive solution is then developed, implemented, and as long as it is considered acceptable there is no need to revisit the regulations. The reliance of autonomous ships on AI-type technology suggests that it may be more difficult to identify or set safety levels for particular issues or to develop common rules that can be easily translated into prescriptive requirements. This could hinder the development and rule acceptance process for new technologies and ship types.
3. Methodology
3.1 Research Design
As briefly mentioned, the research design component encompasses the use of the framework in Figure 3.2 to guide the research and assess the potential of autonomous ships in comparison to today’s shipping methods within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea. This involves an assessment as to whether certain types of ships are better suited to autonomy and different areas within the region will also demand different shipping services. Information needed to make this assessment will be acquired through discussions with people involved in the industry and will provide a platform to move onto stages two and three in the framework. Modeling will be carried out to simulate a real-life scenario of an autonomous ship and compare this with current shipping methods in terms of fuel consumption and transport time. A case study may also be done on a specific route or region to get a more detailed understanding of what goes on in the shipping industry. Finally, an extensive comparison will be made at trends and predictions for the shipping industry in the future of the Arabian Sea and Red Sea and assess whether autonomous ships will be a feasible option. Step by step, this will give a comprehensive understanding of whether autonomous technology has potential within this specific region and at what areas it will be better than existing ships and methods.
In an attempt to address the objectives of this study, technology has been explored in the form of autonomous ships in order to determine its potential within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea and whether it is a feasible option. As there is no previous research on this topic, the study will provide a pioneering insight into the potential benefits and pitfalls of a new and developing technology within the shipping industry. In order to conduct this study, a framework was developed as seen in Figure 3.1. This encompasses time allocated to each step and what resources will be put into it. By allocating more time and resources into the initial stages in this framework, it is hoped that a deeper understanding of the issues surrounding autonomous ships can be obtained. With so much uncertainty as to what the future holds for autonomous ships, it is hoped that this framework will also reveal which areas require more investigation. It is also conscious that as a new technology, the pros and cons of autonomous ships are likely to change over time. To take this into account, a dynamic assessment which can be manipulated and modeled will be employed.
3.1 Research Design
This research paper is an investigation of analysis and possibilities relating to the use of autonomous ships traveling on specific routes within the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea. Specifically, this section of the paper is focused on the autonomous ship as a potential replacement for manned ships traveling the routes between the Gulf and the Suez Canal. The use of these ships is an important research area due to recent advancements in autonomous shipping technology. Testing the possibility of autonomous ships on a safe and simple route such as this can lead to preliminary testing that may have future implications on manned ships traveling more complex routes. Future work may also include the testing of autonomy in smaller vessels transiting between mother ships waiting to cross into the Red Sea from the Gulf. The most optimal scenario may be the testing of autonomy in a mother ship itself. These are all potential research areas with the overall goal of reducing manned resource at sea.
Having concluded that the use of autonomous ships in the future could have effects on many types of shipping, it is important to identify and test various levels of autonomy on simple tasks with a specific goal of transitioning to more complex tasks. A specific task to be looked at in detail involves transportation of crude oil from the Gulf to a Red Sea port to a specific destination in the Red Sea. This study focuses on a potential mother ship and also a small autonomous oil tanker. The concept involves transport of the tanker aboard the mother ship at times of high piracy threat in the Arabian Sea, and a later transition to the autonomy on the tanker alone. This simple point to point task serves as a case study for more complex future work.
3.2 Data Collection
Primary data was collected in a similar manner to the above Methodology section. Formal interviews were carried out with shipping experts and various seminars were attended with marine industry professionals. The thought behind this was to once again ascertain the frequency of ship groundings in regions of interest and the subsequent costs in today’s shipping industry. This will then be compared to a projected analysis of the future costs of autonomous ship groundings, in order to draw a valid comparison between autonomous and man operated ships.
Data was collected through various means, both primary and secondary. Secondary data was collected primarily through various institutions and government departments. The rationale behind this decision was to gain an understanding of the current trends in casualties, specifically ship groundings, in both the Arabian Sea and Red Sea. This data was collected in response to conducting a statistical analysis, with the intent of developing a model comparing the incident of ships grounding and the subsequent costs incurred, were they to be autonomous or man operated.
3.3 Data Analysis
The very first step towards a successful and efficient data analysis. Since the main aim of this research is to develop guidelines for the shipping industry to adopt autonomous ships, a very large and complex model to assess the economic feasibility for such ventures will be made using several hypothetical examples of autonomous ships, and comparing the operating costs of these ships to conventional ships. Stepwise explanation of how this model works is very well explained in Guided optimization method for a continuous ship speed model. Basically, the model compares the fuel consumption of autonomous ships and manned ships over the same route. The routes selected will be based on information obtained during interviews from shipping companies in India, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. It will also take into consideration the viability of near future alternative fuel technology, when the data indicates that conventional fuel is not the optimal choice for autonomous ships. In this case, it makes sense to use a predictive fuel price model with high fuel prices as an input. This is important for future decisions as higher fuel prices make it more worthwhile for shipping companies to change to an alternative technology. In order to do this, regression equations could be derived from historical data and updated periodically.
4. Findings and Discussion
This research has investigated the potential of autonomous ships for specific routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea, and has considered the associated benefits and challenges. The information on specific routes within these regions is limited, and as such the scenarios developed are based on hypothetical trade flows that reflect the economic and industrial developments of the region. The outcome of this investigation is not simply the creation of a theoretical situation, but the identification of the key requirements for implementation of autonomous shipping systems and their potential impact on the global maritime transportation industry. This should put the research at the forefront of the industry. Although autonomous shipping is not a new idea, it has not been widely perceived for many years and current development is nearly all focused on the shipping of small unmanned vehicles rather than a completely automated system.
4.1 Overview of Specific Routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea
This section firstly presents an overview of the specific routes within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea that are focused in this study. With reference to the routes mentioned in the previous section on shipping lanes, the Arabian Sea is a primary route for shipping traffic between the East and West. The Red Sea is paramount in the transportation of goods between Europe and the Middle East/Asia. The main shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea start from the southern tip of Sri Lanka heading north through the Arabian Sea, before splitting with many offshoot routes to the West and Gulf of Persia and others entering the Red Sea. For the Arabian Sea, routes are important as it is established that “The separation between the Indian and Pakistani EEZs and the route between the Gulf and SE Asia, are the two most heavily used areas in the Arabian Sea” [Xue et al 2004]. Whilst the Red Sea is important due to the narrowness of the Sea which means, almost all traffic between Europe and the Middle East and Asia travels through it. Each one of these routes is followed by a variety of vessels predominantly of the types described in previous sections.
4.2 Potential Benefits of Autonomous Ships for these Routes
Another huge advantage of autonomous ships is the reduction of operational costs and personnel. According to Rolls-Royce, crew costs account for 44% of the total operational expenses per annum for a mid-sized bulk carrier. Ships with no crew would prevent the cost of paying for the crew and free up space used for accommodation and recreation. The ‘MUNIN’ research and development project estimates that with 50% of ships being remote controlled by 2040, the cost reduction could be anywhere from 44-60% with a total expenditure saving of 70 million euros. This is not a benefit to all in the industry, and in the short term, some may find it difficult to gain employment or lose jobs, but the cost reduction would create greater profit for shipping companies and cheaper services for customers. Finally, autonomous ships would be more reliable than manned ships in terms of round the clock 365-day-a-year service. This is possible through a system called Airpak from Finnish company Deltamarin, which would create a blow to shipbuilders as they use less or no engine and propulsion room space.
An example would be the ‘smart anchor’ concept. Ships still use an anchor to stop at sea; however, if the weather is bad or the anchor is in an area of current or past conflict, it can be dangerous and result in the ship drifting or worse. Smart ships will be able to use dynamic positioning technology to stay in one place using thrusters and propellers rather than risk dropping the anchor. A system called Marine Accurate Collision Avoidance System is being developed, as well as the UK’s first autonomous vessel control system tested on a Sea-Boats unmanned surface vessel. This could prevent collisions and groundings. This would increase safety at sea and prevent accidents such as oil spills. In January 2016, the autonomous surface vehicle C-Endeavour owned by ASV Global and chartered by the UK’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency and the National Oceanography Centre began trials of sea floor mapping in preparation for surveying over 80,000km of underwater cable for damage and debris. This demonstrates the move to using drones in both air and water to prevent humans from working in unsafe or difficult areas.
There are many potential benefits of using autonomous ships for these routes. Fully autonomous ships, or ‘smart ships’, offer the chance to increase safety at sea and the prospect of fewer accidents or pollution from accidents. The greatest advantage of autonomous ships to the shipping industry is the potential to make shipping safer. According to a report by Allianz, 2,554 seafarers died from 2003 to 2012 and 15,000 ships were inspected, detaining 1,662 of them. Two of the main causes of death in the shipping industry are being crushed by moving objects and falling from height. These can both be eliminated by using autonomous ships.
4.3 Challenges in Implementing Autonomous Ships for these Routes
Another safety concern lies in the transit of military vessels through these shipping lanes. The Arabian Sea and Red Sea are notorious for political tension, and military conflict is a common occurrence. Autonomous ships have the potential to reduce the risk of war at sea by limiting unpredictability in ship behavior, and they may integrate a higher level of technology to detect and avoid military vessels than the currently employed system of lookouts and radar monitoring. However, until all vessels at sea are autonomous or at least have a high degree of automation, an autonomous ship may be vulnerable to collision with a manned military vessel in a situation where the autonomous ship’s avoidance action is misinterpreted. The consequence of a collision with a military vessel in a politically tense area could be severe.
These routes pose many challenges to the implementation of autonomous ships in comparison to the current condition in conventional shipping methods. A major challenge is the frequent transit of small fishing vessels across shipping lanes, which has the potential to cause safety hazards in the case of an autonomous ship due to its inability to detect small obstacles at a sufficient range to take preventative action. This type of situation is different from when a manned vessel encounters a fishing boat at sea, as human intervention can prevent a collision and the ship might also alter its course or speed to avoid the fishing boat.
4.4 Comparison with Conventional Shipping Methods
The voyage cost of a specific cargo on the AI ship and the conventional ship can be calculated using the route plan of each vessel and its associated fuel consumption. It is assumed that the AI ship will carry cargo in 2022, so only data for a vehicle carrier conveying the same cargo has been used for the comparison. Using average annual data for fuel and a daily hire rate from E A Gibson shipbrokers, a daily voyage cost can be calculated for the AI ship using its estimated 30-day journey time. By summing the voyage time daily hire rate and daily running cost with the voyage time fuel cost, a daily cost for the AI ship can be obtained. Multiplying this cost by 30 gives a total voyage cost, and performing the same calculation using a conventional vessel provides a comparable cost which will show any potential cost savings.
When comparing with the current shipping method, begin with cost comparison and efficiency as the most noticeable savings to be made. With AI technology on the AI ship, the vessel will be able to calculate the safest, shortest, most fuel-efficient route and form its speed and route planning around specific cargo requirements, thus reducing fuel consumption and voyage time. Autonomy negates any risk of human injury or death, and AI ships will not need to be repurposed or enhanced as radically or as regularly as conventional ships to adhere to safety regulations. Although AI technology is initially expensive, once developed, it will be cheaper to maintain than a conventional ship, and with reduced crew costs factored in, the daily running cost of an autonomous vessel over a year will be significantly less than that of a manned vessel.
4.5 Future Prospects and Recommendations
Conclusion and Recommendation pg. 20: Conducting models to test the success is a fairly low-cost investment for its potential gain. It is recommended that conducting a simulation of autonomous ships under the same circumstances with real-time opposition of intelligent pirate parties would be very beneficial to the United Arab Emirates and the oil tankers involved, providing evidence for or against autonomy and exposing any more vulnerabilities or the lack thereof. Simulation would provide an opportunity to adjust circumstances until it is predicted that the ship would arrive with oil safe. This would definitely be viable and a recommended decision.
Future of Specific Routes pg. 19: The future of all shipping is heading in the direction of autonomy, therefore it can be assumed that the importance of shipping to the oil and towards the economies of the Gulf States will result in an attempt to simulate what has been done in the example previously. This would involve autonomous ships carrying out these specific routes. In the coming years, the technology will improve and the vulnerabilities such as piracy will be easier to cope with. The importance of transporting oil and towards the economy of the nations involved will mean that these simulations could be practiced to almost definitively predict success.
Introduction pg. 19: Future Prospects and Recommendations is the concluding chapter of this report. This chapter examines the potential future of autonomous ships functioning within the Arabian Sea and Red Sea. This is considered by discussing whether it is a possibility for all shipping routes or only strategic routes to be done autonomously in the future. This is important to consider as it will ultimately define the level of input effort versus economical gain. After which, the final conclusion and recommendation will be made based on the extensive analysis throughout the report.